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I got my January 2, 2015 edition of The Kiplinger Letter just a day ago.  It included ten forecasts for 2015.  The first one was very upbeat as it read “the economy will finally hit stride racking up solid 3% growth for the year.  Look for consumer confidence and spending to swell, propelled by more-robust hiring, higher wages and lower energy expenses plus wealth gains from stronger home values and a healthy stock market”.  I read another report in the most recent American Fastener Journal, and it was not so upbeat as the Kiplinger Letter, but it was not bad.  The STAFDA economic report was, again, not bad but perhaps not as upbeat as Kiplinger.  So, overall, I’d say the fastener and construction based magazines were just a little less optimistic than the Kiplinger Letter.

Sometimes, our industry sees things before other industries do.  We see a slowdown in parts procurement before the consumer sees the flow of end products slow down.  I’m not saying it is the case here, but I know this has been the case in the past.

What else did Kiplinger have to say?  Mostly there was a lot of political commentary, topics ranging from who will be the presidential candidates in 2016, immigration policy and Supreme Court ruling on same sex couples having the right to marry.  I was looking for more economic info but the only thing I found was a prediction for U.S. stocks to have another solid year.  But then, the last line of that topic read, “But expect market volatility and some profit taking along the way.  It has been more than three years since the last correction, when the market fell 19.4%”.   What was that?  We are going up, but we could also go down?  Sounds like a weather forecast more than a stock market analysis, but we are trying to predict the future here, and that is never easy.

I have a few questions for these forecasters.  Let me start with this one.  Really, why is gas going down so much at my local gas pump?  Really?  Is this a political move to drive down Russian oil and hurt the Russian economy?  Is this OPEC lulling us to sleep so we it is no longer profitable for us to keep drilling our own wells and using our own resources?  Heck, I just read that there are some drilling sites in Ohio that are slowing down production already.  I thought we were going to run out of oil in just a few years and that is why we were building windmills, developing solar, etc.  What’s the real deal?

Also, the economies of many of the “fracking” states were absolutely counting on all the revenue being generated by the new drilling.  So, our gas goes under $2/gallon, but do all the newly created jobs dry up and go away?  That’s a lot of tax revenue just gone.  And a lot of economic development put on hold.  How’s any of that going to help create new jobs?  We’re going to have to go padlock the Dakotas for another 20 or 30 years if this industry slows down too long.

I’m just surprised how quickly oil dropped, and I wonder what else could drop in such a short period of time.  Out fastener industry is dependent upon people building stuff and consuming parts.  Low gas sounds great, but what will that do to other industries?

There is a lot more stimulus debt out there that has propped up our economy over the last couple years and likely helped the stock market to hit new all time highs.  That cannot continue and eventually interest rates will go up, at least a little.  So, while there might be some optimistic forecasts, it’s hard to go “all in” on some of the projections.

Honestly, these big picture projections are important to our industry and what kind of year each of us will have in 2015.  But just as important are the industry specific stories.  Who will be buying who?  Will there be any product shortages?  Is stainless going up or down.  The bigger trends affect all of us but sometimes it is the littler, fastener specific news that really throws the wrench into our daily work lives.