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Last week I was sent the January update on the Fastener Distributor Index (FDI):

“The Index took a hit during the month, which was widely expected by many industry operators.  The FDI dropped to 45.6 in January versus 50.8 in December, seasonally adjusted.”

Within a couple days of getting that notification I was sent this story from Industrial Distribution:

“Fastenal – No. 12 on Industrial Distribution‘s 2015 Big 50 List – posted its January 2016 sales figures on Wednesday, and its numbers may provide a glimmer of hope in an otherwise gloomy past year of earnings reporting for large industrial distributors.

The Winona, MN-based company posted January sales of $308.4 million, a 3.3 percent daily sales increase over January 2015. This marks the first month of year-over-year sales growth for Fastenal since August 2015, when it grew 1.6 percent. December 2015’s total sales were $286.6 million.

Fastenal’s previous four months posted yearly sales declines, each bigger than the last:

• December 2015   -3.8 percent
• November 2015   -1.1 percent
• October 2015   -0.8 percent
• September 2015   -0.3 percent
• August 2015   +1.6 percent”

The Fastenal data suggests they had a bump in January after some pretty slow months at the end of 2015.  Again, Fastenal is just one company but out in the fastener marketplace a lot of companies have suggested that January started off very strong, oil & gas being the possible exception.  And, even with oil & gas, there is still be some activity.  Unfortunately, many start up companies or new branches of oil & gas focused suppliers will close due to the decrease in oil prices. But, not all oil production will cease completely.  There will just be a large bubble burst.  More worrisome is the debt that will come due to all the banks that loaned large amounts to the frackers and drillers, but that is another whole topic.

Getting back to fasteners, I wonder if the FDI somehow gets respondents reacting to recent stock market plunges and business sentiments from the end of 2015.

I think the FDI is an interesting measuring tool and could serve our industry well, especially if more companies took the five minutes needed to respond to the few simple questions. Fastener associations and STAFDA pay large amounts to get reports from economic forecasters and I am told the information is  highly valued and often accurate.  It makes me think we could do a better job mining our own information and sharing it with all our industry.

At the end of my email note regarding the FDI was the following information worth passing along:

NOTE: Beginning in January, we are attempting to have all survey data in to BB&T before the first of the month.  They have asked us to do this to more closely publish FDI results with PMI results.  While this is a minor shift for survey respondents, and a small inconvenience for some, I hope everyone will recognize the importance of timing our index with the PMI and appreciate your accommodation to make this happen.

For additional information, and to register for FDI participation, see the FDI website at www.fdisurvey.com, or contact Eric Dudas at [email protected].