Have any of you figured out how COVID-19, or the disease also know as coronavirus is going to affect your business yet? I see supply chain updates and realize some factories have temporarily shut down in other countries. Are domestic manufacturers seeing an increase in fill in orders? Anybody out there from the state of Washington? I think half your state is working from home now. I’m curious to see if ITR Economics offers any updated projections based on this situation. Fastener Fair says the show is still on in Charlotte in May but several others have been postponed. Friends in other industries are cancelling travel plans like crazy and several have told me that their trade shows and larger meetings have been cancelled. Curious if you have any thoughts on the matter.
[…] How is COVID-19 affecting your business? […]
Its crazy how much changes in a 12 hour period. We’re not seeing supply issues from our domestic suppliers yet and our inventory is in healthy supply. 12 days into March and its really looking like a great month…but ask me again tomorrow. We have plans in place for various scenarios regarding the virus but hoping we get through this “moment in time” quickly! Everyone stay safe and healthy!!!!
Allan Weitzman
Jay-Cee Sales & Rivet
http://www.rivetsonline.com
http://www.valuefastener.com
Well put. Precaution now can save a lot of unnecessary grief in the next few weeks. This is game time right now. I hope people look at me in a few months, after the danger has passed, and call me a fool for being overcautious. I’ll wear that label with pride.
Hi Marty,
– You can find some information about the panel that we had a Long Beach in this link https://www.globalfastenernews.com/panelists-fastener-production-resumes-in-china/
– ITR is doing a webcast about this subject and sent an email (read below)
The surprise Saudi decision to heavily discount price and ramp up production dropped oil prices below the $37.70/bbl trip wire we established vis-à-vis 2020 potentially coming in below our forecast. Additionally, the stock market’s negative reaction to the news pushed the S&P 500 closer to that trip wire (but not beyond it). Accordingly, our macroeconomic and related industrial market forecasts are under review to determine their sensitivity to the significant decline in oil prices and attendant additional decline in the S&P 500.
We suggest that our consulting clients and subscribers examine their own specific performance in 2015-2016 and ask themselves if anything has since changed that would make their 2020 performance better or worse. We are not saying that 2020 is a simple repeat of 2016; however, 2016 is a useful, recent paradigm to examine.
We are going through our EVP-program consulting clients to identify those companies that show the greatest sensitivity to oil prices, the stock market, and health-related issues (tourism, transportation, large events, etc.). Our team will be reaching out to you based on sensitivity to those variables to coordinate efforts and determine if a revised forecast is warranted. We will simultaneously be doing the same for the series used in the ITR Trends Report™. Those series will be revised, and the new pages made available, as required. The ITR onDemand™ platform will enable us to share results with you without your having to wait for the April issue of the Trends Report.
Thanks for sharing that info Nelson. We are all watching daily to see what happens next including things like Fastener Fair in May. Also wonder how these unexpected circumstances affect ITR projections including their projections for 2030.
TS, my domestic manufacturers are flat out. Lead times are getting longer. I hear that raw materials are shrinking, due to the unprecedented upswing in domestic orders being placed. Quoting on “gap” orders, due to the fears of the virus interfering with deliveries, has everyone very busy.
Marty
At the IFI Spring meeting and it is full GO! Was at the PAC West – NFDA last week and there was some fall-off! Fastener Fair USA will have some attendance problems from both exhibitors and attendees because it is only two months away and all the current hype. The IFE, six months away should be a little better off as by then we will have a better feel where this virus is going.
If we do not sufficiently prepare for what’s coming, in spite of all the early warnings coming out of other countries, then it doesn’t matter what we say, or what we do as individual organizations.
Businesses and families need to be ready for extended quarantine. The threat is real and even if we’re not members of the class of potential fatalities, we could be capable of carrying the virus to them. Which means we’re all under some level of threat.
A scientist who works on vaccines made the analogy of war in respect to dealing with the virus. The medical community is doing what it can, but (sticking with the war analogy) this is a health Pearl Harbor. They were unprepared and remain underfunded and lacking necessary resources to effect an immediate turnaround. We all need to be ready to survive further attacks in the near term while we wait for a resolution.